Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis

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CAMA PUBLICATIONS

Publication Year	Title	Authors
2008	Top 10 Global Economic Challenges Facing America's 44th President	Brookings Global Economy and Development
2008	Report by the Terrestrial Carbon Group How to Include Terrestrial Carbon in Developing Nations in the Overall Climate Change Solution (external link)	Ashton R , et al
2007	The 2006 Sir Leslie Melville Lecture: From National to International Climate Change Policy	McKibbin WJ.
2006	Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza	McKibbin WJ, and Sidorenko AA.

WORKING PAPER SERIES

The CAMA Working Paper Series is catalogued on REPEC and available for download. If you would like to submit a paper for this series contact the relevant program director (see Research Programs). The program directors are responsible for recommending publication of working papers in the series.

2007 2006 2005 2004

2008
Serial Number	Title	Authors
38/2008	How Do Public Announcements Affect the Frequency of Trading in U.S. Airline Stocks?	Nowak S.
37/2008	Holdouts in Sovereign Debt Restructuring: A Theory of Negotiation in a Weak Contractual Environment	Pitchford R, and Wright MLJ.
36/2008	Technological Scarcity, Compliance Flexibility and the Optimal Time Path of Emissions Abatement	Mignone BK.
35/2008	Expecting the Unexpected: Macroeconomic Volatility and Climate Policy	McKibbin WJ, Morris A, and Wilcoxen PJ.
34/2008	News and Expectations in Financial Markets: An Experimental Study	Menzies GD, and Zizzo DJ.
33/2008	The Contribution of Domestic, Regional and International Factors to Latin America's Business Cycle	Boschi M, and Girardi A.
32/2008	Earnings Valuation and Sources of Growth	Shaffer S.
31/2008	Prices in Emissions Permit Markets: The Role of Investor Foresight and Capital Durability	Mignone BK.
30/2008	Variable GST: A Tool for Monetary Policy in New Zealand?	Claus I, and Sloan B.
29/2008	The Indian Growth Miracle and Endogenous Growth	Madsen JB, Saxena S, and Ang JB.
28/2008	Financial Performance of Small Business Loans: Indirect Evidence	Shaffer S.
27/2008	Repeated Contests: A General Parameterization	Shaffer S, and Shogren JF.
26/2008	Rural Economic Performance and Federal Credit Programs	Shaffer S, and Collender RN.
25/2008	Strategic Risk Aversion	Shaffer S.
24/2008	New Small Firms and Dimensions of Economic Performance	Shaffer S, Hasan I, and Zhou M.
23/2008	Inflation Targeting Policy: The Experiences of Indonesia and Thailand	Siregar R, and Goo S.
22/2008	Fiscal Rigidity in a Monetary Union: The Calvo Timing and Beyond	Libich J, and Stehlik P.
21/2008	Competition Policy, Corporate Saving and China's Current Account Surplus	Tyers R.
20/2008	Expectations, Learning and Business Cycle Fluctuations	Eusepi S, and Preston B.
19/2008	The Frequency of Price Adjustment and New Keynesian Business Cycle Dynamics	Dennis R.
18/2008	Finance and Inequality: The Case of India	Ang JB.
17/2008	Learning, Expectations Formation, and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy	Orphanides A, and Williams JC.
16/2008	Welfare-Maximizing Monetary Policy under Parameter Uncertainty	Edge RM, Laubach T, and Williams JC.
15/2008	Are Financial Crises Alike?	Dungey M, Fry R, Gonzales-Hermosillo B, Martin VL, and Tang C.
14/2008	China Can Grow and Still Help Prevent the Tragedy of the CO2 Commons	McKibbin WJ, Wilcoxen PJ, and Woo WT.
13/2008	Building on Kyoto: Towards a Realistic Global Climate Agreement	McKibbin WJ, and Wilcoxen PJ.
12/2008	Funding Externalities, Asset Prices and Investors' "Search for Yield"	Gai P, and Trivedi K.
11/2008	An Unobserved Components Common Cycle for Australia? Implications for a Common Currency	Hall VB, and McDermott CJ.
10/2008	What Does a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific Mean to China	Jiang T, and McKibbin W.
9/2008	Macroeconomic Effects from the Regional Allocation of Public Capital Formation	Alsono-Carrera J, Freire-Seren MJ, and Manzano B.
8/2008	American and European Financial Shocks: Implications for Chinese Economic Performance	Tyers R, and Bain I.
7/2008	Sovereign Theft: Theory and Evidence About Sovereign Default and Expropriation	Tomz M, and Wright M. L. J.
6/2008	Inflation Dynamics with Search Frictions: A Structural Econometric Analysis	Krause MU, Lopez-Salido D, and Lubik TA.
5/2008	Service Oligopolies and Australia's Economy-Wide Performance	Tyers R, and Rees L.
4/2008	Welfare Improving Coordination of Fiscal and Monetary Policy	Hughes Hallet A, Libich J, and Stehlik P.
3/2008	Scenario Analysis with Recursive Utility: Dynamic Consumption Plans for Charitable Endowments	Satchell S and Thorp S.
2/2008	Discounting and Consumption over an Uncertain Horizon: Draw-Down Plans for Family Trusts	Satchell S and Thorp S.
1/2008	A New Class of Tests of Contagion with Applications to Real Estate Markets	Fry R, Martin VL, and Tang C.
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2007
Serial Number	Title	Authors
29/2007	The Identification of Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Structural VAR	Dungey M, and Fry RA.
28/2007	Relative Risk Aversion and the Transmission of Financial Crises	Boschi M and Goenka A.
27/2007	The Term Spread and GDP Growth in Australia	Poke J, and Wells G.
26/2007	Limited Rationality and Strategic Interaction: The Impact of the Strategic Environment on Nominal Inertia This Working Paper has been published in Econometrica, vol. 76, no. 2, March 2008.	Fehr E, and Tyran JR.
25/2007	Empirical Evidence on Jumps in the Term Structure of the US Treasury Market	Dungey M, McKenzie M, and Smith V.
24/2007	Stabilising the Australian Business Cycle: Good Luck or Good Policy?	Liu P.
23/2007	Do Countries Default in "Bad Times"?	Tomz M, and Wright MLJ.
22/2007	Debt Stabilisation Bias and the Taylor Principle: Optimal Policy in a New Keynesian Model with Government Debt and Inflation Persistence	Stehn SJ, and Vines D.
21/2007	Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction with Various Degrees and Types of Commitment	Libich J, Hughes Hallet A, and Stehlik P.
20/2007	Rogoff Revisited: The Conservative Central Banker Proposition Under Active Fiscal Policies	Hughes Hallett A, Libich J, and Stehlik P.
19/2007	Measuring Synchronicity and Co-movement of Business Cycles with an Application to the Euro Area	Mink M, Jacobs JPAM, and de Haan J.
18/2007	Constructing Historical Euro Area Data	Anderson H, Dungey M, Osborn DR, and Vahid F.
17/2007	Six Leading Indexes of New Zealand Employment	Claus E and Claus I.
16/2007	Increasing Returns, Financial Capital Mobility and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics	Pennings S, and Tyers R.
15/2007	Growth, Sectoral Composition, and the Wealth of Nations	Alonso-Carrera J, and Raurich X.
14/2007	China's Real Exchange Rate Puzzle	Tyers R, Golley J and Bain I.
13/2007	Can Consumption Spillovers be a Source of Equilibrium Indeterminacy? This Working Paper has been published in the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 32, pp. 2883 - 2902, 2008.	Alonso-Carrera J, Caballe J, and Raurich X.
12/2007	Cointegration, Long-Run Structural Modelling and Weak Exogeneity: Two Models of the UK Economy	Jacobs JPAM, and Wallis KF.
11/2007	Equilibrium Storage with Multiple Capacities	Nishimura K, and Stachurski J.
10/2007	Incorporating Rigidity in the Timing Structure of Macroeconomic Games	Libich J and Stehlik P.
9/2007	Two Issues in Carbon Pricing: Timing and Competitiveness	Pearce D and McKibbin WJ.
8/2007	The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Labor Supply and Education in an Economy with Household and Market Production	Booth A, and Coles M.
7/2007	A Microfoundation for Increasing Returns in Human Capital Accumulation and the Under-Participation Trap	Booth A, and Coles M.
6/2007	Endogenous Fertility Policy and Unfunded Pensions	Booth A, and Sepulveda F.
5/2007	Open Economy DSGE-VAR Forecasting and Policy Analysis: Head to Head with the RBNZ Published Forecasts	Lees K, Matheson T and Smith C.
4/2007	Domestic Investment and External Imbalances in East Asia	Lee JW and McKibbin WJ.
3/2007	Transmitting Shocks to the Economy: The Contribution of Interest and Exchange Rates and the Credit Channel	Claus E and Claus I.
2/2007	Exchange Rate Markets and Conservative Inferential Expectations	Menzies GD, and Zizzo DJ.
1/2007	Learning and International Transmission of Shocks	McKibbin WJ and Tan KY.
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2006
Serial Number	Title	Authors
25/2006	Gains from Commitment Policy for a Small Open Economy: The Case of New Zealand	Liu P.
24/2006	Uncovering the Hit-List for Small Inflation Targeters: A Bayesian Structural Analysis This Working Paper is forthcoming in the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.	Kam T, Lees K and Liu P.
23/2006	The Relative Importance of Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in Malaysia	Tang HC.
22/2006	An Explicit Inflation Target as a Commitment Device This Working Paper has been published in the Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 30, no. 1, pp.43-68.	Libich J.
21/2006	The New Zealand Business Cycle: Return to Golden Days?	Hall VB and McDermott CJ.
20/2006	Taxation and Finance Constrained Firms	Claus I.
19/2006	Commodity Currencies and Currency Commodities	Clements KW and Fry R.
18/2006	Beveridge Nelson Decomposition with Markov Switching	Low CN, Anderson HM and Snyder R.
17/2006	Monetary Policy in Illiquid Markets: Options for a Small Open Economy	Claus E, Dungey M and Fry R.
16/2006	Monopolistic Unions, Brainard Uncertainty, and Optimal Monetary Policy	Henckel T.
15/2006	A Credible Foundation for Long Term International Cooperation on Climate Change	McKibbin WJ and Wilcoxen PJ.
14/2006	Nonlinear Autoregressive Leading Indicator Models of Output in G-7 Countries This Working Paper has been published in the Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 63-87, January-February 2007.	Anderson HM, Athanasopoulos G, and Vahid F.
13/2006	An Asian Monetary Union?	Tang HC.
12/2006	Can Structural Open Economy Models Account for the Influence of Foreign Disturbances?	Justiniano A and Preston B.
11/2006	Sovereign Risk in the Classical Gold Standard Era	Cameron G, Gai P and Tan KY.
10/2006	Issues in Adopting DSGE Models for Use in the Policy Process	Fukac M and Pagan A.
9/2006	Endogenous Contagion - A Panel Data Analysis	Baur D and Fry R.
8/2006	Human Inequality, Human Capital Inequality and the Kuznets Curve	Lim ASK and Tang KK.
7/2006	Estimates of Technology and Convergence: Simulation Results	Wells G and Stengos T.
6/2006	The Global Macroeconomic Consequences of a Demographic Transition	McKibbin WJ.
5/2006	The Asymmetric Effect of the Business Cycle on the Relation Between Stock Market Returns and their Volatility	Smith PN, Sorensen S, and Wickens MR.
4/2006	Credit Market Frictions in an Open Economy	Claus I, and Kim K.
3/2006	The Desirable Smooth Operator, Incomplete Pass Through and the "Zero Bound"	Kam T.
2/2006	Inflexibility of Inflation Targeting Revisited: Modelling the "Anchoring" Effect	Libich J.
1/2006	Inequality and the Dual Economy: Technology Adoption with Specific and General Skills	Lester A.
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2005
Serial Number	Title	Authors
29/2005	Environmental Consequences of Rising Energy Use in China	McKibbin WJ.
28/2005	Inflation Targeting in India: Issues and Prospects	Jha R.
27/2005	Estimating a Model of Inflation in Tajikistan	Zavkiev Z.
26/2005	Ramsey Fiscal and Monetary Policy under Sticky Prices and Liquid Bonds	Hu Y, and Kam T.
25/2005	The US Treasury Market in August 1998: Untangling the Effects of Hong Kong and Russia with High Frequency Data This Working Paper has been published in the International Journal of Finance and Economics, 2008, vol 13, pp 40-52	Dungey M, Goodhart C, and Tambakis D.
24/2005	Debt Sustainability in East Asia After the Financial Crisis This Working Paper has been published in the Journal of the Korean Economy, vol 6, no 2.	Huh HS, Jha R, and Koo CM.
23/2005	The Diverging Patterns of Profitability, Investment and Growth of China and India, 1980-2003 This Working Paper has been published in World Development, 2008, vol 36, no 5, pp 741-774.	Fan EX, and Felipe J.
22/2005	An Australasian Currency, New Zealand Adopting the US Dollar, or an Independent Monetary Policy?	Hall VB.
21/2005	Constructing a 2001 Social Accounting Matrix of Tajikistan	Zavkiev Z.
20/2005	Synchronisation of Financial Crises	Dungey M, Jacobs JPAM, and Lestano.
19/2005	Some Issues in Using VARs for Macroeconometric Research	Fry R, and Pagan A.
18/2005	Financial Intermediation and the Cost of Capital in an Open Economy	Claus I.
17/2005	Aggregate Investment in the People's Republic of China: A Comment	Felipe J.
16/2005	New Zealand's Economic Reforms and Changing Production Structure	Claus E, and Claus I.
15/2005	Shocks and Systemic Influences: Contagion in Global Equity Markets in 1998	Dungey M, Fry R, Gonzales-Hermosillo B, and Martin, VL.
14/2005	Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality of Asymmetric Loss?	Elliott G, Komunjer I, and Timmermann A.
13/2005	Global Demographic Change and Japanese Macroeconomic Performance	McKibbin WJ.
12/2005	Inferential Expectations	Menzies GD, and Zizzo DJ.
11/2005	Single Source of Error State Space Approach to the Beveridge Nelson Decomposition This Working Paper has been published in Economics Letters, vol 91, pp 104-109, 2006.	Anderson HM, Low CN, and Snyder R.
10/2005	Convergence and Per Capita Carbon Emissions	McKibbin WJ, and Stegman A.
9/2005	Fiscal Policy and Economic Activity: U.S. Evidence	Arin KP, and Koray F.
8/2005	Convergence in Carbon Emissions Per Capita	Stegman A.
7/2005	Some Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series	Pagan A.
6/ 2005	A Note on Competitiveness, Unit Labor Costs and Growth: Is "Kaldor's Paradox" a Figment of Interpretation?	Felipe J.
5/2005	Financial Liberalization, Financial Sector Development and Growth: Evidence from Malaysia	Ang JB, and McKibbin WJ.
4/2005	The Effects of Bank Lending in an Open Economy This Working Paper has been published in the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol 39, issue 5, pp. 1213-1243.	Claus I.
3/2005	The Influence of Consumer Confidence and Stock Prices on the United States Business Cycle	Haugh D.
2/2005	A Phillips Curve for China	Scheibe J, and Vines D.
1/2005	Making a Match: Combining Theory and Evidence in Policy-Oriented Macroeconomic Modelling This Working Paper has been published in the Journal of Econometrics, 136, 505-594.	Kapetanios G, Pagan A, and Scott A.
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2004
Serial Number	Title	Authors
14/2004	Transpacific Trade Imbalances: Causes and Cures This Working Paper has been published in The World Economy, vol 29, no 3.	Lee JW, McKibbin WJ, and Park YC.
13/2004	Correcting for Biases when Estimating Production Functions: An Illusion of the laws of Algebra?	Felipe J, Hasan R, and McCombie JSL.
12/2004	Is a Theory of Total Factor Productivity Really Needed? This Working Paper has been published in Metroeconomica, vol. 58, no. 1, 2007.	Felipe J, and McCombie JSL.
11/2004	"A Theory of Production" The Estimation of the Cobb-Douglas Function: A Retrospective View This Working Paper has been published in the Eastern Economic Journal, vol. 31, no. 3.	Felipe J, and Adams FG.
10/2004	On the Rental Price of Capital and the Profit Rate: The Perils and Pitfalls of Total Factor Productivity Growth	Felipe J, and McCombie JSL.
9/2004	Why are some Countries Richer than Others? A Skeptical View of the Mankiw-Romer-Weil's Test of the Neoclassical Growth Model This Working Paper has been published in Metroeconomica, vol. 56, no. 3.	Felipe J, and McCombie JSL.
8/2004	Macroeconomic Stabilization and Pro-Poor Budgetary Policy in the Globalized Economy This Working Paper has been published in G.A. Cornia (ed) Pro-Poor Macroeconomics, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire UK: Palgrave Macmillan, 2006, pp. 27-48.	Jha R.
7/2004	Some Methods for Assessing the Need for Non-Linear Models in Business Cycle Analysis This Working Paper has been published in the International Journal of Forecasting, 21, 651-662.	Engel J, Haugh D, and Pagan A.
6/2004	Structure of Financial Savings During Indian Economic Reforms This Working Paper has been published in Empirical Economics, vol 31, no 4, pp 861-869.	Jha R, and Longjam IS.
5/2004	A Suggested Framework for classifying the Modes of Cycle Research This Working Paper has been published in the Journal of Applied Econometrics, 20, 151-159.	Harding D, and Pagan A.
4/2004	Modelling Global Demographic Change: Results for Japan	McKibbin WJ, and Nguyen J.
3/2004	Synchronization of Cycles This Working Paper has been published in the Journal of Econometrics, 132, 59-79.	Harding D, and Pagan A.
2/2004	A Web of Shocks: Crises Across Asian Real Estate Markets This Working Paper has been published in the Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2006, 32 (3).	Bond SA, Dungey M, and Fry R.
1/2004	Long Run Projections for Climate Change Scenarios	McKibbin WJ, Pearce D, and Stegman A.
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